EMERGING ECONOMIES GAIN A VOICE AT DAVOS
26 enero 2010
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Published by The New York Times, US
Davos, Switzerland - Anyone at the World Economic Forum who wants a break from talking about what is wrong with the world can wander over to a Davos nightclub where the D.J. Megha Kawale will be spinning Bollywood tunes into the wee hours, compliments of an Indian business group.
But it would be a mistake to think the Indians are just bringing a bouncy soundtrack to the Davos convocation of the world’s financial elite.
Representatives from India and other emerging nations come with more claim than ever to steer the debate.
Developing countries now account for nearly half of global output, compared to little more than one-third in 1990.
The Group of 20 leading economic powers, which includes nations like China, Argentina and South Africa, as well as the United States and other wealthy countries, has emerged as the dominant forum for economic diplomacy.
Companies like Huawei, a maker of telecommunications equipment that has its headquarters in Shenzhen, China, and Wipro, the outsourcing company based in Bangalore that is helping sponsor the late-night Bollywood revelry, are now as visible as the European companies that have long dominated the annual winter conference in the Swiss mountains.
From the rising powers of the world like China, India and Brazil, “you didn’t used to have these large, global corporations, and that changes the dialogue,” said Tidjane Thiam, group chief executive of Prudential, which is based in London but is the largest life insurer in Indonesia and other emerging countries.
Other things have changed as well. Global financial crises, like the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s or Latin America’s perennial debt disasters, used to emanate from vulnerable corners of the developing world.
But the most recent crisis, the worst since World War II, sprang from the banks in the United States and Europe. And this time, it looks as if China and other developing countries are leading the way out of recession, rather than following.
“It’s quite clear that there’s been a significant shift in the global order,” said Robert M. Kimmitt, a Davos participant who is a former deputy secretary of the U.S. Treasury Department. “Asia will lead the global recovery. I think everybody agrees with that.”
With the Western economic model under attack and the United States and Europe weakened by the crisis, people attending Davos from emerging nations may well be pushier this year in discussions about subjects like free trade and financial regulation.
“One of the striking effects of the crisis has been a new confidence and willingness of people from emerging markets to assert what they think the agenda for reform should be,” said Barry Eichengreen, a professor of economics and political science at the University of California, Berkeley, who will be at Davos. “The days are past when the U.S. and Europeans would make all the proposals.”
The number people attending the World Economic Forum just from the so-called BRIC countries — Brazil, Russia, India and China — has more than doubled since 2005, to 237, or about 10 percent of the total. Prominent politicians from emerging-market countries who are scheduled to attend the Forum include President Jacob Zuma of South Africa; President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil; and Li Keqiang, executive vice-premier of China.
Davos will serve as an informal G-20 meeting, conducted in wool sweaters and snowproof footwear. While not a place to forge formal accords, it does let leaders discuss issues face to face without their usual retinues.
“It’s an efficient meeting place, mostly,” said Tarun Khanna, a professor at Harvard Business School who specializes in emerging markets. “Davos generates a million ideas. If 10 get picked up, that probably pays for it.”
One of the things participants will be talking about is a rise in protectionist sentiment in developed countries.
Free trade is not a tough sell at Davos, but participants will discuss how to deal with growing populism. One idea, said Mr. Khanna, who helped develop the agenda, is to push governments for better economic data, which he said he believed would better show the benefits of globalization.
Davos, Switzerland - Anyone at the World Economic Forum who wants a break from talking about what is wrong with the world can wander over to a Davos nightclub where the D.J. Megha Kawale will be spinning Bollywood tunes into the wee hours, compliments of an Indian business group.
But it would be a mistake to think the Indians are just bringing a bouncy soundtrack to the Davos convocation of the world’s financial elite.
Representatives from India and other emerging nations come with more claim than ever to steer the debate.
Developing countries now account for nearly half of global output, compared to little more than one-third in 1990.
The Group of 20 leading economic powers, which includes nations like China, Argentina and South Africa, as well as the United States and other wealthy countries, has emerged as the dominant forum for economic diplomacy.
Companies like Huawei, a maker of telecommunications equipment that has its headquarters in Shenzhen, China, and Wipro, the outsourcing company based in Bangalore that is helping sponsor the late-night Bollywood revelry, are now as visible as the European companies that have long dominated the annual winter conference in the Swiss mountains.
From the rising powers of the world like China, India and Brazil, “you didn’t used to have these large, global corporations, and that changes the dialogue,” said Tidjane Thiam, group chief executive of Prudential, which is based in London but is the largest life insurer in Indonesia and other emerging countries.
Other things have changed as well. Global financial crises, like the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s or Latin America’s perennial debt disasters, used to emanate from vulnerable corners of the developing world.
But the most recent crisis, the worst since World War II, sprang from the banks in the United States and Europe. And this time, it looks as if China and other developing countries are leading the way out of recession, rather than following.
“It’s quite clear that there’s been a significant shift in the global order,” said Robert M. Kimmitt, a Davos participant who is a former deputy secretary of the U.S. Treasury Department. “Asia will lead the global recovery. I think everybody agrees with that.”
With the Western economic model under attack and the United States and Europe weakened by the crisis, people attending Davos from emerging nations may well be pushier this year in discussions about subjects like free trade and financial regulation.
“One of the striking effects of the crisis has been a new confidence and willingness of people from emerging markets to assert what they think the agenda for reform should be,” said Barry Eichengreen, a professor of economics and political science at the University of California, Berkeley, who will be at Davos. “The days are past when the U.S. and Europeans would make all the proposals.”
The number people attending the World Economic Forum just from the so-called BRIC countries — Brazil, Russia, India and China — has more than doubled since 2005, to 237, or about 10 percent of the total. Prominent politicians from emerging-market countries who are scheduled to attend the Forum include President Jacob Zuma of South Africa; President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil; and Li Keqiang, executive vice-premier of China.
Davos will serve as an informal G-20 meeting, conducted in wool sweaters and snowproof footwear. While not a place to forge formal accords, it does let leaders discuss issues face to face without their usual retinues.
“It’s an efficient meeting place, mostly,” said Tarun Khanna, a professor at Harvard Business School who specializes in emerging markets. “Davos generates a million ideas. If 10 get picked up, that probably pays for it.”
One of the things participants will be talking about is a rise in protectionist sentiment in developed countries.
Free trade is not a tough sell at Davos, but participants will discuss how to deal with growing populism. One idea, said Mr. Khanna, who helped develop the agenda, is to push governments for better economic data, which he said he believed would better show the benefits of globalization.
