GLOBAL TRADE WELL BELOW PRE-CRISIS TREND

18 mayo 2012

Fuente: Published by Brecorder.com, Pakistan

London, May 18 (Reuters)- Global trade growth will slow this year and volumes are unlikely to regain their pre-crisis trend for at least another four years, according to a survey.

The International Chamber of Commerce said it expected trade, the life blood of the global economy, to expand by 5.2 percent this year and by 7.2 percent in 2013.

Growth for all of 2011 was 6.6 percent, driven by emerging markets, but slowed down towards the end of the year.

Euro zone export volumes fell 5.9 percent in 2011.

After the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, global trade suffered the steepest slump since the Great Depression of the 1930s as banks pulled in their horns.

These financial problems have diminished but have not disappeared, the ICC warned.

"Left unattended, they can still cause irreparable damage to the trade finance industry," the report, based on a survey of 229 banks in 110 countries, said.

Chief among bankers' concerns is the scarcity of capital.

Many European banks that were traditionally big suppliers of trade finance have quit the market or cut back sharply because of funding constraints and pressure to deleverage.

The ICC has lobbied in vain to persuade international bank regulators to remove trade finance -generally a low-risk business- from the overall leverage ratio that will limit banks' total assets to 33 times their core equity capital under new Basel III capital requirements.

Trade finance departments were "competing internally for each unit of the bank's scarce capital", the ICC said.

Fifteen percent of respondents reduced their trade credit lines to corporate customers last year compare with 12 percent in 2011.

This pullback, allied to a shortage of liquidity and what the ICC called a disproportionate aversion to risk, was continuing to drive up interest rates on trade finance in a number of countries, especially in emerging markets.